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    Estimate of what Shai's estimate would be for 2012/2013

    • Started by vaskozl
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    • From: Malmö, Sweden
    • Registered: 10-Sep-2012
    • Posts: 122

    Just for fun I decided to approximate how much users colemak currently has. Shai published a few estimates for 2006, 2007 and 2008 but has stopped updating the statiscis ever since. Here are the statistics he made:

    2006: 350-700 users, where 87 registered in the forum
    2007: 1600 users, where 217 registered
    2008: 3000 users, where 386 registered

    According to Shai, he used complex techinques to determine to approximate the amount of users. He also had information that we don't have available to us. But we do know one thing, and that is the count of users who have registered. Furthermore if we look at the ratio between users and people who registered we see:

    2006: (350 - 700)/87= 4.0 - 8.0, so ~ 6.0
    2007: 1600/217=7.37
    2008: 3000/386=7.72

    In all 3 estimates  about 1 person out of 7 has registered in the forum. Today we have a whooping 1694 forum users.
    1694*7= 11858 users in total :)

    Now I am aware that this estimate is by no means accurate, since the forum also contains a lot of non-colemak users, or users who are just asking whether or not they should switch. But as a general 1 register per 7 users seems pretty reasonable and I'm happy to see the community grow. If things continue this way the future looks bright.

    As a side not 11858 is a lot of users nonetheless, however, about 1/3 of the world has internet and therefor uses computers. That means that there are around 2 billion people are using keyboards and Colemak users are : 11 858 / 2 000 000 000 * 100 ~ 0.000006% of all keyboard users in the world.

    We are a pretty big community for such a minority :D. Happy keyboarding everyone!

    Last edited by vaskozl (06-Apr-2013 22:36:37)

    Posted without the aid of a rodent.

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    • From: Viken, Norway
    • Registered: 13-Dec-2006
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    It could be more actually, if some users have switched to Colemak on their Linux computer without bothering to use these forums. Up until a few years ago, this site was the only portal to the layout but that's no longer necessarily the case.

    *** Learn Colemak in 2–5 steps with Tarmak! ***
    *** Check out my Big Bag of Keyboard Tricks for Win/Linux/TMK... ***

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    • From: California Coastal Living!
    • Registered: 24-Aug-2009
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    I've been using Colemak since 2009, and I'm way past forgetting I'm using an "alternative" layout.

    Thanks to Colemak I'm a touch typist. And thanks to the Kinesis Advntage so I can type Colemak comfortably.

    When I see a poor typist, I say "Your typing sucks. You could make your life easier by using the new, advanced layout Colemak, like everybody else". I think it motivates them.

    It seems to me, a well placed piece of info and many people would become more aware and it would take off like wild. Funny, I would have thought it would sweep the intertoobs by now. LOL

    Last edited by Input Nirvana (02-Jun-2013 06:26:29)

    An Evil Screaming Flying Door Monkey From Hell typing with Colemak saved my life!

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    input nirvana said:

    It seems to me, a well placed piece of info and many people would become more aware and it would take off like wild. Funny, I would have thought it would sweep the intertoobs by now. LOL

    After giving it some thought, I'm of the opinion that colemak advertising dropped the ball in several important areas:

    • Its shortcut density, one of its killer features and an aspect that distinguishes it from most other optimized layouts, is not emphasized.

    • Most importantly, tarmak has not been emphasized; it's almost like it doesn't exist unless someone happens to show you.  When I posted about it on reddit, two colemak users said they thought it was overkill.  What insanity is this?  This is a world where the vast majority of people don't even try a new layout, most that do end up giving up due to the difficulty of the relearning, and yet a tool that makes switching much more managable and less risky is "overkill"?  Imagine if tarmak had been posted on the front page since 2006.  Every touch-typer who visited would've seen a clear, and unprecedented, path to transition.   Colemak would've been ingrained in the enthusiasts' mindshare as "easy to learn".  But instead, we only get abstract arguments of its ease that, frankly, aren't nearly as compelling.

    • On an incidental, though probably unrelated, note, the website for another transitional layout, minimak, has a much more compelling design.  It also helps that the transitional point is so clear.

    Last edited by lalop (13-Jul-2013 00:38:37)
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    • From: California Coastal Living!
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    Interesting info.

    To some extent it may not be worth the switch to most people if they don't have typing related issues. It's not that qwerty doesn't work, it's that it's far from perfect, and we can get much closer to a more suitable layout that makes sense (there are many, there will not be an exact perfect solution). This is mostly only apparent when someone has a typing related issue like RSI/carpal tunnel. For me it wasn't RSI, it's just that I was never comfortable and hated to type. Colemak is more comfortable and motivated me to touch type due to the fact it is far more workable.

    So rather than "convert" the existing typing base, I see it more as an option when people start to type. The biggest avenue for this is the keyboard and legends on the keyboard and the fact people need to be aware there are alternatives. And, it has to be easy. Another issues is that there seem to be many options...no one clear solution to choose.

    An Evil Screaming Flying Door Monkey From Hell typing with Colemak saved my life!

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    input nirvana said:

    Another issues is that there seem to be many options...no one clear solution to choose.

    Quite agreed; I probably considered more than 5 layouts before finally going colemak.

    This also ties partially with what I said above.  The shortcuts and the transitional layouts are truly distinguishing features more-or-less unique to colemak.  And yet, instead of those, the readers are treated mainly to abstract metrics that beg looking up the metrics for other layouts, laborious comparisons, etc.

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    • From: California Coastal Living!
    • Registered: 24-Aug-2009
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    In 2009 when I switched, I didn't spend too much time comparing. I knew qwerty and had actually tried Dvorak some years before, which was a great improvement. But keyboards are very uncomfortable for me for whatever reason...HATE staggered layouts. I only use Kinesis Advantage now. I switched to Colemak after I got a Kinesis. I don't even like using my laptop anymore because of the staggered keys. I can't really say if I would like using a matrix style keyboard (like the Typematrix), but my concerns are a matrix layout, separated (or wide layout), angled, tented, and bowl shaped...in that order. Dunno if I can do without the bowl shape.

    An Evil Screaming Flying Door Monkey From Hell typing with Colemak saved my life!

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    • From: Viken, Norway
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    Calling Tarmak overkill seems uninformed. One of its selling points is that you can use as many of the transitional layouts as you feel like. I know users who wanted to change only 3–4 keys at a time so for them it certainly wasn't overkill. Other users have wanted only one or two transition steps and Tarmak accommodates that too. Pish.

    I haven't got a website nor the knowledge or drive to run one so my main contributions have been in this forum. I do wish that Shai would get someone to give this place a little more love and nourishment. If anyone want to put in some work on updates and graphics and suchlike, maybe they could give him a holler and see if he answers?

    *** Learn Colemak in 2–5 steps with Tarmak! ***
    *** Check out my Big Bag of Keyboard Tricks for Win/Linux/TMK... ***

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    I think it comes from people thinking "I didn't need this and was able to learn the layout fine".  It's too easy to forget that, where we succeeded, many, many others also failed because the tools weren't good enough for them.


    It's at least easy enough to come up with KLA layouts for tarmak:

    Stages: http://imgur.com/a/CBUaq

    Ivsgta5.png

    I confess to a lack of website knowledge (and don't really want to just plagiarize the minimak source while just replacing the pics ;).  If we could edit the wiki, I bet we could do quite a bit of good, though.

    Last edited by lalop (04-Jun-2013 00:53:20)
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    • From: Viken, Norway
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    Nice! Add one image at the top named 'Tarmak 0 aka QWERTY' maybe? :)

    *** Learn Colemak in 2–5 steps with Tarmak! ***
    *** Check out my Big Bag of Keyboard Tricks for Win/Linux/TMK... ***

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    I don't think I can, and it wouldn't be very clean anyway.  Plus, tarmak's targeted at touch-typists, who undoubtedly need no further reminder of qwerty ;)

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    • From: California Coastal Living!
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    Good insight that just because "we" have been successful with whatever issues we've been confronted with (Colemak switching), that some others have not and could use some additional tools to facilitate a possible transition.

    It would be great if this website was a powerhouse with hot chicks, loud graphics and a techno beat, but it's great that it's here at all, and it has helped me and others. I appreciate DreymarRs contributions (and most importantly I forgive him for being Norwegian).

    It probably makes no matter to any one individual if Colemak becomes more popular, but it can be a somewhat crucial aspect to help alleviate/prevent RSI issues, which is the most important aspect. Now that OSX, Win, Linux offer Colemak as a keyboard layout, and there is the software provided on this website, the need for hardware Colemak is effectively null (other than legends).

    Did you ever consider that if keyboard came without legends, 99% of people would probably learn to touch type? LOL

    An Evil Screaming Flying Door Monkey From Hell typing with Colemak saved my life!

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    Didn't someone say that if you remote desktop in windows you face a potential layout switching nightmare?

    That's one thing that feels nice about SSHing, I get to keep my layout, without having to configure the remote.

    For the tricky situations,  a hardware solution could be far easier.  Not to mention that switching a switch is far more convenient than getting lost in system settings trying to activate your layout.

    A hardware solution  does seem a little overboard when you'd imagine that it should be trivial and cheaper to do with software and an intuitive UI.

    It's great that you have relatively decent support for your layout.  But what about other marginal and esoteric setups?

    I've said it before, but I'd rather a generic solution than a specific layout have support.

    And who are you to suggest that I'm not a beautiful babe, tripping on my trotters to Kraftwerk - while perusing the forums!

    --
    Physicians deafen our ears with the Honorificabilitudinitatibus of their heavenly Panacaea, their sovereign Guiacum.

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