Predicting the future is hard, obviously. It's interesting to note that Dvorak (along with Betamax) is considered a textbook example in economic theory, albeit not without controversy. I have a feeling that Dvorak made "almost, but not quite" a couple of times - such as the incident with one govt. official making an important decision in Dvorak's disfavour all by himself and seemingly out of his gut feeling. If that guys' gut had felt differently... who knows? Same as Esperanto (let's not debate its merits and shortcomings here but it's an interesting case at the least), that ALMOST made official "neutral" language status in the EU. Had it gotten that status, it wouldn't have been a museum relic of a language experiment anymore, but highly alive all of a sudden! One major break can be all it takes sometimes, and sometimes it's mostly down to luck.

So maybe - just maybe! - Colemak could get a break: A new hope (reference, hehe) could overcome the "done" feeling that Dvorak suffers from now; the (much!) simpler learning curve could give just the extra push required to make it happen. Who knows. I don't dream too ambitiously myself, or at least I try not to, because as long as I can use Colemak in my daily routine and fun then I'm happy really. If the world sees what I've seen then fine, if not then it's really worst for them and not for me.  :)

A New Hope? Oh, man - I just got the sweetest T-shirt motif idea. The narrowing yellow band of text of the Star Wars intro, replaced with "Episode III: A New Hope" (the Star Wars fans will protest vehemently at the numbering, which point I tell them that Sholes was Ep. I and Dvorak Ep. II, heh), and the the Colemak in all its glory marching towards infinity among the stars. Oh man oh man, that'd be so much fun!  :)  NeoMenlo? Hello? Back from vacation soon?

Oh by the way, back on track: My capitalist friend, were there an actual point to that post given its title? I mean, is there anything specific you consider the dreams and doings of Dvorak that you wish to warn against? Apart from trying to make your layout breakthrough at the same time as a world war outbreak and suchlike, I mean?  ;)

Yes,

DreymaR there will be a point to this thread. And padde has something there too, that needs to be explored. And samurai doesn't quite have it right - something better can take over, despite the ingrained habits - but the circumstances have to be right.

I haven't fully developed what I mean and how to say it, so just bear with me, and keep adding your thoughts - they'll help develop this idea with more clarity and force ...
Bye for now ...

JW

Dvorak scared away too many people due to it's difference to qwerty. Colemak looks far more like qwerty and this is one big factor which encourages people to learn it. The reason why I never learned qwerty touch-typing is that the 'jfjf fjfj jj ff' lessons bored me to death, so I continued my hunt-and-peck. When I saw the cmk lessons however, I immediately chose to learn it. I therefore think that colemak should perhaps target more those who don't touch-type. The website should maybe highlight the easy lessons together with information why touch-typing is better than hunt-and-peck, which would probably persuade more people to switch. Any comments, Shai?

I definitely wouldn't say that dvorak does too little. As I have mentioned above, I think the opposite is actually true. The maltron then goes even further, and it does look horrible, despite its advantages.

I think the problem is that most people don't know that qwerty sucks and that alternatives are available.

I don't think cmk should be enforced. People who want to touch-type can use cmk out of their own will, but those who don't can stay with qwerty. The problem here is getting people to know about cmk.

Here again, I think the problem is that schools are unaware of cmk and dvorak is too different. The schools woulnd't need new PCs just for typing in a different layout. They need nothing new really and that's what should make colemak attractive to them. It's all a question of publicity.

I think that it can't be counted on to simply put it out there and hope for the best.

Even volunteer efforts need a marketing plan, and direction.

The dream of any new superior keyboard layout is that it'll somehow be taken up by school children. While this would be a major advancement, I point out that it's a very common dream/desire, and none of the alternatives have ever succeeded, so how realistic is that?

Perhaps it is realistic, but no one has ever made the targeted effort necessary? Or maybe it's been tried without success (Dvorak was reportedly being taught in part of the Washington State school system at one point, and still got killed).

I honestly believe that unless the transition is made differently than the old "typing lesson" method, Colemak will simply be one on the literally hundreds of alternatives that never even achieved the dismal "success" of Dvorak.

Hence my push to suggest that the transition itself is phased, with people's actual typing on the morphing keyboard becoming the "lessons".

Secondly, I think that a marketing plan would need to be developed and target markets aimed at, with precision.

Aside from the ubiquitous "let the children lead the way" dream, I see two other potential markets.

One, managers and executives with moderate/slow typing skills. They are spending greater and greater amounts of time on keyboards of various types (eg Blackberry, etc.) who could benefit from a phased transition.

Secondly, those suffering from RSI/Carpal Tunnel. This too is a typical dream for the alternative keyboarders. However, the way to go about achieving this would be, I suggest, entirely differently than how it has presently been done (which is haphazard, if at all).

I say target the HMO's, the insurance companies, the workers compensation boards, that have to pay these claims. Develop a marketing plan to show them how this board will help lower their claims costs. Once this begins, their will finally be a powerful economic allay in trying to actively convert from the qwerty board.

I suspect that one of the reasons that this has never happened, is that patchwork fixes to the qwerty issues have never been able to overcome the perceived steep learning curve to another, better, ergonomic board layout, eg Dvorak. So a patchwork alternative has always instead been used - i.e. an ergonomic shaped board is suggested, instead of a better layout.

Bye for now ...

I note that carpalx offers one intermediate switch which is something that people can wrap their heads around with maybe more ease than a 5-step route (although experts may disagree?). It can even be used on its own accord if you're not hardcore enough to go all the way. I think that's a decent idea, and maybe Shai agrees? Could there be a "semi-Colemak", one single step on the way to full Colemak goodness? The great thing about such a semi-layout is that it's completely optional. I'd suggest a pathway that leaves the J in the wrong place but fixes the home row. Hmmm...

I do agree that a one-keystep-at-a-time approach looks neat, but if it leads to something halfhearted (or uses too many temp positions for that matter) I can't accept it myself.

"Dream like...", "Dream like...", "Dream..." - aaah, gotta wake up! Stop with your slogan dropping, please, and stick to the argument. It gets tiresome and sounds like you're some kind of idea peddler trying to hypnotize us into following you.  ;p

As for the X-Fu itself, I can't remember where I read Shai's comments on it but he had some. It looks like a good layout, but I notice a few points myself:
- Doesn't conserve the rare-but-hotkey-important (for most) ZXC(V) keys; I consider moving them a bad idea as three of them are very well placed on the QWERTY and the fourth acceptable.
- Also moves some other rare keys around a bit too much maybe? No idea why it replaces the Q with X; that should be really unnecessary.
- Gets the R in a somewhat awkward position considering its usage frequency? For me this is even more of an issue since the R is substantially more common in some non-English languages including my own (Norwegian). Same goes for the H to some extent.
- The comment "23-oct-06 I am adjusting my effort models. All keyboard layouts are outdated." is very interesting but also means that we'll have to wait for Martin's next move. Saying you're done (as Shai has) has some benefits to it although it does of course mean that no further progress will be made either so it's only right to do if you're fairly confident you are where you want to be. Shai was of course, but it's hard to see for the non-expert who is right and not about such things.

Martin's case studies are fairly nice. I'd love to see him do one on Colemak since he's aware that it's a good contender to his own layouts.

Using trigraphs is a good way to optimize I think. He has done much work on the subject for sure.

Would you call Dvorak a failure?

With some 100.000 users?

I wouldn't.

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."
-Margaret Mead

Yes, Padde

Unfortunately, we have to call 100,000 to 500,000 users (most likely estimate) a failure. Given there's some 200m computers in the English speaking world, that's a dismal penetration rate after some 70+ years.

DreymaR,

I appreciate your comments - I don't think I'm nearly as smart as you kindly insinuate me to be. In any case, thanks for participating here ... I can see that you're kind of the informal "Keeper of the Colemak".

I do seriously question whether Colemak can jump the hurdles it has in front of it, and whether an approach like Martin's "partial optimization" might not actually be the best to achieving significant improvement over a qwerty. Not as good as Colemak's, but enough that the differences are relatively minor.

Given most people's talking speed of 170-200wpm, I wonder whether the keyboard will survive another 10 years (although it's demise has been predicted many times, without actually occurring). By the time Colemak catches on, the partial optimization could have been having good market penetration.

Anyway, thanks ...

Exactly! I have lots of friends, and I always am trying to get them to stop using QWERTY. Well since I type faster than average, most people don't notice the small increase I got by switching away from QWERTY. (I am trying to avoid mentioning that I am using Dvorak, yet supporting Colemak.) I know one person noticed that my hands move a lot less, and he is actually considering switching, "just to learn something new", but other than a single consideration, how many people have I converted of the dozens I've told? Zero.

What would be very helpful is some good advertisement. The problem is, that costs money.

Let me count the ways the mass culture would consider me a freak, geek, whatever.

I am left handed, so I grew up being a freak.
Multiple advanced degrees.  (in the US that makes you suspect - part of the evil liberal intelligentsia).
I don't subscribe to cable TV. (your just strange in the US if you don't.)
I use Macs (that used to make me part of the Apple cult -- though things appear to be changing)
I practice very traditional Japanese martial arts,  that's a tiny part of the population even in Japan.
I am agnostic (in Texas bible belt -- whoa! sign of the devil )

so hey Colemak is nothing!
:-)
we need a t-shirt otherwise everyone will think we are doing perfectly normal stuff with our keyboard.

where is the fun in that ?